2015 Hugo Awards - numbers
Aug. 23rd, 2015 09:44 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
psocopteraWhat do we know, what do we think we know? I'm sure other people will be doing this too but I like to take a crack at it.
5950 total voters. Looking at the novellas (5337 voters), 3495 for No Award, 1842 splitting the nominees, with one of the Wright stories and the two non-Wright stories roughly evenly matched around 500-550, and the other two Wright stories majorly trailing in the 100-150 range.
So one interesting thing here is that even if the Puppies had put out an official *order* for their slate, and gotten those 1842 votes backing one candidate, they still would have been crushed by the No Award voters. We see that again in Short Story, where there are 3053 No Award voters and 2214 for all five nominees.
It's still true but less pronounced looking at the Editor categories, 2672 No vs 2178 Anyone for the Short and 2496 No vs 2411 Anyone for the Long. Also of interest here, 586 first place votes for VD in the Short, 166 first place votes for him in the Long, he eventually runs-off to 5th place in the Short and last place in the Long. Still an unbelievable embarrassment to the field that he was on our ballot, but on the other hand, that's 12% of the Short category and Deez Nuts is polling at 9% in the Republican Primary in North Carolina.
Chaos will think this is interesting: in the novelettes, "Day the World Turned Upside Down" and No Award were 1700 to 1732 in the first pass, and it took three eliminations for "Day" to pull ahead. Hugo voting people not wildly excited about this candidate. Wesley Chu, on the other hand, 2655 out of the gate against 529 No Award.
I'll probably link to more analysis as it happens.
ETA: Here's one initial analysis.
5950 total voters. Looking at the novellas (5337 voters), 3495 for No Award, 1842 splitting the nominees, with one of the Wright stories and the two non-Wright stories roughly evenly matched around 500-550, and the other two Wright stories majorly trailing in the 100-150 range.
So one interesting thing here is that even if the Puppies had put out an official *order* for their slate, and gotten those 1842 votes backing one candidate, they still would have been crushed by the No Award voters. We see that again in Short Story, where there are 3053 No Award voters and 2214 for all five nominees.
It's still true but less pronounced looking at the Editor categories, 2672 No vs 2178 Anyone for the Short and 2496 No vs 2411 Anyone for the Long. Also of interest here, 586 first place votes for VD in the Short, 166 first place votes for him in the Long, he eventually runs-off to 5th place in the Short and last place in the Long. Still an unbelievable embarrassment to the field that he was on our ballot, but on the other hand, that's 12% of the Short category and Deez Nuts is polling at 9% in the Republican Primary in North Carolina.
Chaos will think this is interesting: in the novelettes, "Day the World Turned Upside Down" and No Award were 1700 to 1732 in the first pass, and it took three eliminations for "Day" to pull ahead. Hugo voting people not wildly excited about this candidate. Wesley Chu, on the other hand, 2655 out of the gate against 529 No Award.
I'll probably link to more analysis as it happens.
ETA: Here's one initial analysis.
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no subject
Date: 2015-08-25 02:29 am (UTC)What's a puppy slate? I read through
EDIT: got more caught up on LJ and read through the E-Pluribus-Hugo faq you cited, which helps to clarify things some. So I assume a "slate" is a fixed set of things down the line that people with a specific agenda come in and vote for?