politics

[psocoptera]

Dear LJ, I am confused by Republicans. Seriously, Gingrich? Isn't he primarily famous for screwing up badly enough as Speaker in the 90s that he had to leave office? And Santorum lost his seat, and Romney - I guess Romney chose not to seek re-election, but I don't exactly remember anyone around here being sorry to see him go. Is President of the US really now a consolation-prize job?? I'm not saying I was a fan of McCain, but he was at least a successful Senator, in the sense of holding his Senate seat, and Bush was a successful governor, in that same sort of pass-fail sense. Whereas it seems to me that Gingrich and Santorum have already flunked out of national office and Romney dropped out and these are really the strongest candidates the Republicans can field? It's like if Gray Davis was running for the Dems, like, wouldn't that just seem ridiculous?

Comments

[myalexandria.livejournal.com]

My best guess is that people who would be more serious Republican candidates decided not to run against Obama. I'm not sure that was a sensible decision -- he's not in the strongest re-election position -- but nevertheless.

[wayman.livejournal.com]

I think that's right. Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush ... all fit your definition of "pass", and all were encouraged to run and declined to run this election cycle (while not ruling out future ambitions). Rick Perry, Tim Pawlenty, and Michele Bachmann were the "pass" candidates by this metric that the GOP had this cycle, but they were all long-shots for one reason or another. It will be interesting to see what happens in 2016 of the GOP have a primary field of several strong candidates. Meanwhile, in 2012 we get a GOP three-ring circus with a number of briefly-popular sideshows.

[psocoptera.livejournal.com]

Thanks you guys, this makes a lot of sense to me. (I haven't really been paying enough attention to catch who might have run and isn't, it just seemed like there must be *someone*...)

[q10.livejournal.com]

i don't think that explains it all.

the declared candidates included one current governor (Perry), one former governor who left office to take a high-status diplomatic job (Huntsman), and a former governor who had term-limited out and was reasonably well-liked in his home state (Johnson). one or two of them (Huntsman and arguably Johnson) also had a clear edge over the current crop in such important areas as basic sanity. the Republicans thoroughly rejected all three.

[myalexandria.livejournal.com]

Johnson, Johnson -- I don't remember Johnson. Did he drop out really early?

Yeah, Huntsman, except Huntsman has an Obama problem (he worked with him) and that was never, ever going to fly.

Perry is just a terrible candidate; if he'd been better at campaigning he might very well have made it.

[q10.livejournal.com]

mainly, the thing about Gary Johnson (Governor of New Mexico, 1995-2003) was that he never managed to get anybody's attention to begin with. they only let him into a couple of debates, and he never took off in the polls enough to get more coverage.

[tirerim.livejournal.com]

He didn't drop out so much as switch to the Libertarian Party on account of the entire GOP ignoring him.

[myalexandria.livejournal.com]

btw, by "serious" I don't mean "people I would actually vote for" -- any of those who exist have presumably already fled the GOP. By "serious" I mean "not Newt Gingrich."

[randysmith]

Two thoughts: a) I think the presidency has been Romney's aim since before he became Governor; he was only Governor to provide a springboard to the presidency, and b) http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/dec/13/fox-news-frighten-america-conservatives .

I do think Obama's very vulnerable. I've been assuming whoever won the Republican primary would be president. But that opinion's been ... eroded. I think if Romney wins he'd probably win the general election. But I'm not sure any of the others could. (At least, I really hope Gingrich couldn't :-{).

[psocoptera.livejournal.com]

That is really interesting about the Fox Primary (er, as described in that article), thanks for the link.

[creed-of-hubris.livejournal.com]

Intrade has consistently had Obama's reelection chances around 50%... until the SC primary results; he's now at 55% and if Newt keeps winning I assume they'll go even higher.

[psocoptera.livejournal.com]

Heh, I certainly don't mean to *complain* that the Republican candidates all suck...

[eclectic-boy.livejournal.com]

I'd claim that Gingrich is far more famous for writing the "Contract with America" pledge that huge numbers of Republican candidates signed onto in 1994, providing them such strong turnout that the Republicans took control of the House for the first time in 40 years, and leading them to elect Gingrich as the speaker. His fall from grace four years later wasn't nuthin', but I think it's far less important a part of Why Gingrich Is Famous, and why so many Republican primary voters seem to be willing to forgive his "profound" flaws.

Also, I suspect it seemed a little ridiculous when the best the Democrats were able to do was nominate the governor of Arkansas to run against the unstoppable "I won the Gulf War and brought down the Berlin Wall" George H. W. Bush in 1992 -- whose popularity had kept a number of big-name Democrats out of the race.

[psocoptera.livejournal.com]

I guess that's fair about Clinton. And the Contract with America for that matter, you're right that that is a big memorable line on Gingrich's resume.

[tirerim.livejournal.com]

People have very short memories.

[q10.livejournal.com]

it may be that the Republican primary electorate sees being hated in MA as a plus for Romney.

[irilyth]

I like the theory that the Republican Party is in the process of being torn in three, between the small-government libertarians, Christian evangelicals, and imperial neocons. I've lost track of which one Romney is, actually -- maybe more of a neocon than an evangelical? But in any case, that these deep divides lead to candidates who are more on the fringe, and thus crazier. And Romney and Gingrich may simply be the sweet spot of "somewhat crazy, but not too crazy" or some such.

Also, I don't know much about Richard Nixon's early career except from reading Dave Barry, but my impression is that it was largely believed to have ended several times before he was elected President. TSOR (Wikipedia) suggests that he lost the Presidential election in 1960 (to JFK), and then lost the election for Governor of California in 1962 (to Jerry Brown), after the last of which he said "You won't have Nixon to kick around anymore because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference". (And I thought there was a third thing, but I can't find it offhand.)

[sheepboyofchaos.livejournal.com]

"I've lost track of which one Romney is, actually"

I wouldn't be surprised if he has the same problem.

[scottsch.livejournal.com]

http://www.theonion.com/articles/time-traveler-from-the-year-1998-warns-nation-not,27178/